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Tip
Sheet: Business, Law & Economics Tip sheets highlight timely news and events at Washington University in St. Louis. For more information on any of the stories below or for assistance in arranging interviews, please see the contact information listed with each story. For comments on the Business, Law & Economics news tips service, please contact the editor, Robert Batterson at (314) 935-5202 or batterson@olin.wustl.edu. Carnahan ghost may haunt Democrats in November Talent win could give Republicans immediate control of Senate Media assistance: Gerry Everding - (314) 935-6375 Source: Steven S. Smith's Web page Related: The Washington Times: "Talent from Missouri" [St. Louis, Mo., October 2002] - When former Missouri governor and U.S. Senate candidate Mel Carnahan died in a tragic plane crash in October 2000, few expected him to become the first dead man elected to the U.S. Senate. But elected he was.
Now, two years later, Jean Carnahan is battling to retain her seat against a formidable challenge by Republican Jim Talent. Already one of the most-closely watched congressional races in the nation, the Talent/Carnahan battle may receive even more attention due to recent speculation that a Talent win could touch off an immediate power struggle for control of the U.S. Senate. "The election of Missouri's Jim Talent would create a brief window during a special session -- particularly if Democrats maintain their majority for the new Congress -- for congressional Republicans to act on their agenda," said Steven S. Smith, a leading expert on congressional politics and the Kate M. Gregg Professor of Social Sciences at Washington University in St. Louis. Under some interpretations of Missouri law, explains Smith, Jean Carnahan is entitled to serve in her husband's seat only until voters have elected a replacement. Recent press reports, including a Sept. 21 story in the a Capitol Hill newspaper Roll Call, have suggested that Republicans might push for a victorious Talent to be sworn in immediately, thus eliminating the Democrat's current razor-thin majority in the Senate during the following two months of lame duck legislative sessions. Smith who directs the Weidenbaum Center on the Economy, Government, and Public Policy at Washington University, is the author of five books on congressional politics and the current editor of Legislative Studies Quarterly. Although the potential power shift would be brief, Smith suggests that the Republicans may view it as a last chance opportunity to push ahead with key legislative agendas. "The Republicans -- and President Bush -- have been anxious to pass a permanent extension of last year's tax cuts, to enact new tax cuts, and to revisit energy policy and other issues that were given up for dead when they lost majority control of the Senate with the defection of Senator James Jeffords," said Smith, Even if Talent wins the election, his ability to be sworn in early is by no means certain. First, election results would need to be certified by Missouri officials, including Democratic Governor Bob Holden. Democratic Senate leader Thomas Daschle also could delay efforts to have Talent sworn into office. While a strict reading of Missouri law could make an immediate transference of power to Talent possible, Smith offers three reasons why that scenario is unlikely to play out: First, the political maneuvering on both sides would be unseemly and costly while the US is pursuing, or is near initiating, military action against the Saddam Hussein regime in Iraq. Second, the Democrats' word that they would not allow an "interim" majority to act is reliable and the Republicans would accomplish nothing. Third, if the Democrats maintained or expanded their majority for the new Congress, an effort by the Republicans to exploit their temporary advantage would be viewed by the public as extraordinarily opportunistic and in contravention of the electorate's mandate. "The Democrats already have put the Republicans on notice that such special session moves would compel them to use the obstructionist tactics that Senate rules make available to them," Smith said. |
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