Missouri mood bodes well for Bush

Don't get Hardy Billington started about John Kerry.

He doesn't trust the Democratic presidential candidate, not a bit.

"You can't believe John Kerry. He'll tell you one thing and do another," said Mr. Billington, a 51-year-old rental property manager. "I want a president who walks a straight line, who stands for what he believes in. That ain't Kerry."

It's not hard to find such strong anti-Kerry sentiment among residents of this heavily Republican city in southern Missouri. Mr. Billington and other locals recently gathered 10,000 signatures on a petition to persuade George W. Bush to make a campaign stop here, and the U.S. President agreed.

Over the Labour Day weekend, he drew 30,000 people to a rally in Poplar Bluff -- double the town's population -- cementing his support in a culturally conservative part of the "Show Me" state.

The enthusiastic welcome -- it was the largest rally to date in Mr. Bush's re-election campaign -- hasn't been the only bad news for Mr. Kerry in a state that is often called the "ultimate bellwether" of presidential politics.

Missouri, which has voted for the winner in every election but one in the past 100 years, was deadlocked between Mr. Bush and Mr. Kerry until the Republican convention two weeks ago in New York.

Kerry strategists promptly added Missouri to a list of states -- Colorado, Louisiana, Arizona, Arkansas, North Carolina and Virginia -- where they stopped buying television ads. Some analysts here say the move was a sign they are throwing in the towel in Missouri, which voted for Mr. Bush in 2000.

"Clearly, the decision to not to go with an ad buy represents some sort of a calculation by the campaign people that the state is not as competitive as it was," said Robert Salisbury, a professor emeritus in politics at Washington University in St. Louis.

"Bush came on strong after the convention and Kerry has not made up that ground. It has yet to be determined whether Kerry can project himself as a strong and persuasive candidate. So far, it hasn't happened."

"Missouri is important because it reflects the nation," said Dave Robertson, a political scientist at the University of Missouri. "I would expect Missouri to go for the winner, because Missouri has gone for the winner in 96% of the elections in the last century."

Mr. Kerry's recent problems in Missouri mirror the troubles he has faced nationally since the Republican convention, said Jim Davis, an expert in presidential politics at Washington University.

"I don't think he knows what to focus on -- whether to focus on Iraq and terrorism or to focus on jobs and the economy. I almost get the impression that he is just thinking out loud."

Many Democrats have long been skeptical that Mr. Kerry, a Massachusetts liberal, could win in Missouri, which borders the conservative South.

The state's two federal senators are Republican and Republicans control the state legislature. The growing southern part of the state, where voting patterns and cultural attitudes are more similar to those in Alabama than in the Midwest, has been trending toward the Republican Party for years.

"Conservative positions on social issues play pretty well here," Mr. Robertson said. "It is not, by any means, a conservative southern state. But it has some southern state tendencies."

Over the summer, Missouri voted 70% to ban gay marriage, and views on such issues as abortion have hardened as the number of evangelical Christian voters has increased.

Raymond Burke, the Roman Catholic Archbishop of St. Louis, entered the political fray by suggesting he would deny Communion to Mr. Kerry because he supports abortion rights.

"We like President Bush so well because he has the faith we have," Mr. Billington said.

But long-time observers of Missouri politics believe the race is not over. They say Mr. Kerry could still make gains in more liberal cities such as St. Louis and Kansas City, which represented more than half the votes cast in the 2000 election. Both urban areas have been hit hard by industrial job losses and increasing poverty.

"He is going to have to get the agenda back on the economy. People are going to have to feel that Bush is not doing the job," Mr. Robertson said.

Despite the decision to relegate Missouri to second-tier status, Kerry volunteers and campaign staff remain optimistic.

Michael Golden, a Kerry spokesman in Missouri, said the Democratic party is continuing to advertise in the state and may still buy ads in October if polling shows the race tightening.

"Within a few weeks, when people are paying attention, the Kerry campaign will have more ads," he said.

"There is a finite amount of money to spend on ads. Our strategists in Washington are playing chess with where the ads are going."

Republican actions also signal they are not yet completely confident of victory here. Over Labour Day weekend, Mr. Bush campaigned in four Missouri cities. In the past week, Republicans have arranged more visits to the state by high-profile Republicans including Donald Rumsfeld, the Defence Secretary, and Rudy Giuliani, the former New York mayor.

Mr. Salisbury still believes Missouri is "very much in play" in the November election.

"I am not persuaded that the polls are reflecting very deep commitments," he said. "I think there are a lot of people who have swayed one direction or another, but without being firm in their commitment."

•	Missouri mood bodes well for Bush Indecisive Kerry losing ground in 'Show Me' state National Post (Canada), Saturday, Sept. 18, 2004 Byline: Sheldon Alberts, CanWest News Service

	Story also ran in 3 others:  Ottawa Citizen, Vancouver Sun and other Canadian newspapers.